When Los Angeles Dodgers seized a 3-0 series lead over Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series on Thursday, October 16, 2025, all eyes turned to the mound at Dodger Stadium. The Brewers’ left‑hander Aaron Ashby was slated to start his third straight appearance, a rarity that highlighted Milwaukee’s bullpen‑first approach. With a win, the Dodgers would become the first defending champion to reach the World Series since the 2009 Phillies, and a sweep would put them one step away from back‑to‑back titles.
Series Overview
The NLCS opened on Monday, October 13, 2025, with a classic pitcher duel: Blake Snell for the Dodgers versus Ashby for the Brewers. From the start, Los Angeles’ offense looked relentless, flashing a 6‑2 win in Game 1 and a 5‑4 thriller in Game 2. By the time Game 3 rolled around, the Dodgers had already taken a commanding 2‑0 edge, and the Brewers, despite posting the league’s best regular‑season record (103‑59), found themselves fighting to stay alive.
Game 3 Recap: The Turning Point
The third matchup was a textbook example of Milwaukee’s opener strategy. Ashby took the ball for the first inning, then handed it off to rookie right‑hander Jacob Misiorowski. Misiorowski, a 2023 second‑round draft pick from the University of Kansas, delivered two inning‑long strikeout bursts before yielding a crucial sixth‑inning single to Tommy Edman. The switch‑hitting shortstop, signed to a five‑year, $74 million deal in December 2023, drove in the go‑ahead run that sealed a 3‑1 victory.
Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy later summed up the night in a post‑game press conference: “They thrive on chaos, stealing bags, and grinding out infield hits. We’re just playing clean baseball, and that’s been the difference.” The comments underscored Los Angeles’ focus on limiting the Brewers’ speed game, which had been a staple all season.
Key Performances and Injuries
Beyond Edman’s clutch hit, the Dodgers’ bullpen fired on all cylinders. Reliever Cody Bellinger (not to be confused with the former All‑Star) logged a flawless third of an inning, preserving the lead. Meanwhile, the Brewers suffered an unsettling blow when 20‑year‑old center fielder Jackson Chourio exited with an undisclosed injury, raising questions about Milwaukee’s depth in the outfield.
For the Dodgers, the lineup stayed mostly intact. Shortstop Mookie Betts added a solo homer, while third baseman Freddie Freeman collected two hits. The balanced attack left Milwaukee scrambling for answers.
Brewers’ Strategy and Challenges
Pat Murphy, the 66‑year‑old manager from Portland, Maine, has been lauded for turning the Brewers into a bullpen‑centric powerhouse. His decision to use Ashby as an opener in Games 1, 2 and 3 reflected a season‑long trend: keeping pitchers fresh and maximizing matchups. However, the tactic also meant the Brewers lacked a traditional starter who could go deep into games, forcing them to rely heavily on young arms like Misiorowski.
Statistically, Milwaukee’s bullpen posted a 2.89 ERA in the regular season, the best in the National League. In the NLCS, though, that ERA ballooned to 4.12, a sign that the pressure of postseason hitters is taking its toll. The loss of Chourio further compounds the issue; his speed and defensive range had been key components of the Brewers’ “small ball” identity.
What’s at Stake for the Dodgers
Beyond the obvious reward of a World Series berth, the Dodgers are chasing a rare historical milestone. The 2009 Phillies remain the last defending champion to return to the Fall Classic, and the 2025 squad, led by veterans like Muncy and Freeman, is itching to etch their own name in the record books. A sweep would also give manager Dave Roberts a clean 3‑0 postseason series record, bolstering his Hall‑of‑Fame résumé.
From a statistical perspective, Los Angeles has won 21 of its last 27 postseason series—a winning percentage of .778 that dwarfs most dynasties. The team’s offensive production this postseason (an average of 5.2 runs per game) ranks second only to the 2016 Cubs in modern NLCS history.
Looking Ahead to Game 4
Game 4 is slated for Friday, October 17, 2025, at 8:38 p.m. Eastern Time, again at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers will likely turn to right‑hander Julio Urías for a start, while the Brewers may double‑down on the opener model with Ashby taking the first inning before handing off to their long‑relief ace, Corbin Burnes.
If the Brewers manage to seize early momentum, they could force the series to a decisive Game 5—something the franchise has never needed in the NLCS era. But the odds, according to a recent Sabermetrics projection, sit at 78% in favor of a Dodgers sweep.
Historical Context: The 3‑0 Curse
Only one team in Major League Baseball history has ever erased a 3‑0 deficit: the 2004 Boston Red Sox, who stunned the New York Yankees in the ALCS. That comeback remains a cultural touchstone, and its rarity adds an extra layer of pressure on the Brewers. The weight of that history was palpable in late‑night locker‑room conversations, as several Brewers veterans admitted the “3‑0 curse” feels real.
Conversely, the Dodgers have a more comforting track record. Their last 3‑0 lead in a postseason series came in the 2020 NLCS against the Atlanta Braves, where they clinched the pennant with a 6‑4 victory in Game 4. That experience could prove invaluable as they prepare for the final showdown.
- Series score: Dodgers 3, Brewers 0
- Game 3 result: Dodgers 3, Brewers 1
- Key player: Tommy Edman's go‑ahead RBI single
- Injury: Jackson Chourio left Game 3 with a leg issue
- Next game: Game 4, Friday, Oct 17, 8:38 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Dodgers’ potential sweep affect their World Series odds?
A sweep would give Los Angeles a 24‑hour rest before the World Series, allowing their ace Blake Snell to recover fully. Analysts project their championship probability jumps from roughly 35% after a 3‑0 lead to about 60% with a sweep, largely because the bullpen stays fresh and morale hits a peak.
What are the Brewers’ chances of bouncing back in Game 4?
Statistically, teams down 0‑3 win only 0.8% of the time. Milwaukee would need to spark a multi‑run inning early, likely relying on their bullpen’s depth. The absence of Jackson Chourio and the limited effectiveness of their opener strategy reduce those odds dramatically.
Why does Pat Murphy keep using an opener like Aaron Ashby?
Murphy’s data‑driven philosophy emphasizes matchup advantage. By starting Ashby and pulling him after one inning, the Brewers avoid a left‑handed batter’s platoon split and preserve Ashby’s arm for high‑leverage later innings. The approach paid dividends earlier in the season but has struggled against the Dodgers’ disciplined plate approach.
Which player has the biggest impact on the series so far?
Tommy Edman’s sixth‑inning single shifted the momentum in Game 3, turning a close contest into a decisive win. His ability to hit against both left‑ and right‑handed pitching and his clutch timing make him the series’ most influential player to date.
What historical precedents exist for a team sweeping a 3‑0 NLCS lead?
The Dodgers themselves accomplished this feat in the 2020 NLCS against Atlanta, winning Game 4 6‑4 to clinch the pennant. Apart from that, only the 2004 Red Sox reversed a 3‑0 deficit, highlighting how rare a full sweep or comeback is in modern baseball.